Humanitarian Demand Logistics Forecast (HDLF) tool
Geneva
Meeting Documents
1. Predicting the Unpredictable - A proposal for reducing supply chain waste in international humanitarian response
Few people involved in humanitarian response would argue that current donor funding patterns, agency logistics, preparedness and response activities could be better directed and create a greater positive impact if they were informed by accurate forecast information of what assistance will be required. Also, not many people believe that accurate long term needs and assessment of requirements at the point of a disaster can be forecasted. Our research project, funded by the Norwegian Research Council, set out to prove that it is possible to generate this information and support the planning process, increasing predictability and so allowing donors and agencies to develop more efficient supply chains. In a pilot project a needs forecast model called the Humanitarian Logistics Demand Forecast (HLDF) has been created by analysing more than 30,000 data inputs across 63 disasters that occurred during 2005-2010 to create needs characterisation models for a given disaster type in a given region. The HLDF produces information that can be used to guide donors or agencies with strategic planning, as well as providing the ability to predict the demand for a particular disaster of a known size in a given area. The tool is particularly useful to initiate a response whilst waiting for results from the needs assessments being carried out. IFRC used the tool as one of the components in developing their 5 year logistics strategy, defining product volumes and the required logistics capacity. The HLDF is the first of its kind on a global basis. Given their role as a coordination platform, we are keen to seek feedback from IASC on the usefulness of this approach in coordination activities, and the validity of further development and investment in such a tool. Also, Birgitte Stalder-Olsen will share IFRC's experience to use the HDLF for their logistics contingency planning for 2014/2015.
Presenters
Ian Heigh – Head of Planning and Operations Support, Avenir Analytics Marianne Jahre – Professor, Supply Chain Management, BI Norwegian Business School and Lund University Birgitte Stalder-Olsen - Head, Global Logistics Service, IFRC Geneva